Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 12.532438 15.343588 18.475702 22.201035 26.487185 31.240111 36.884300
2025-12-07 8.246712 11.751603 16.105423 21.809719 28.977630 37.575215 48.546543
2025-12-14 6.110518 9.850900 14.912711 22.042605 31.585117 43.665241 59.834231
2025-12-21 4.347060 7.910857 13.144465 21.021291 32.166698 46.942223 67.521554
2025-12-28 3.506711 7.077117 12.689019 21.595559 34.754627 52.820065 78.735134
2026-01-04 2.811203 6.285744 12.117541 21.844349 36.792972 57.965639 89.135302
2026-01-11 2.306624 5.689636 11.727289 22.261636 39.026689 63.425407 100.151047
2026-01-18 1.939840 5.253454 11.514426 22.892715 41.569433 69.400458 112.100382
2026-01-25 1.514691 4.576184 10.750107 22.489576 42.418048 72.875487 120.558652
2026-02-01 1.248651 4.168151 10.406543 22.741844 44.286818 77.917648 131.453937
2026-02-08 0.970821 3.639283 9.727234 22.295167 44.932467 81.072227 139.621892
2026-02-15 0.734494 3.127382 8.980956 21.615915 45.094858 83.429776 146.622768
2026-02-22 0.616941 2.927283 8.913647 22.306324 47.812868 90.192699 160.994027
2026-03-01 0.460314 2.532770 8.327598 21.903561 48.575371 93.868369 170.797525
2026-03-08 0.365572 2.298471 8.072511 22.136597 50.487656 99.497929 183.861959
2026-03-15 0.248686 1.895070 7.283724 21.111836 49.945429 100.954000 190.278049
2026-03-22 0.204085 1.773250 7.225407 21.688022 52.487167 107.753382 205.553059
2026-03-29 0.160153 1.619250 7.037519 21.937641 54.393117 113.516549 219.303566
2026-04-05 0.128085 1.501383 6.929117 22.356312 56.651890 119.975658 234.394726
2026-04-12 0.105259 1.418557 6.911541 22.989475 59.376976 127.356514 251.234693
2026-04-19 0.073744 1.232560 6.500655 22.585007 59.920946 130.829885 261.582804
2026-04-26 0.056439 1.131336 6.355033 22.838107 61.851992 136.881861 276.475801
2026-05-03 0.037797 0.977570 5.965910 22.389955 62.237984 140.089785 286.561727